As Democratic Presidential nominee Joe Biden and President Donald Trump prepare to face off tonight, the states that voted for Trump in 2016 are being hit hardest by COVID-19.

Winter is coming and with it the threat of another spike in COVID-19 cases. But more immediate is tonight’s 2020 presidential debate where we can expect the threat of this looming spike to feature prominently.

GPG checked back in to see which states are seeing the largest increase in new cases. Over the past week (9/21-9/27), eight of the top 10 states in terms of new cases went red in 2016. That includes Texas with nearly 50,000 new cases. Further, we see battleground states like Florida, Georgia and North Carolina among the top 10.

If we look back to the first week of April we see the hardest hit states were those that went for Clinton in 2016, with only five of the top 10 going red.

While Trump may be wanting to defeat despair about the coronavirus as Democrats hammer him for his handling of it in battleground states, voters’ experiences with the outbreak may impact their political outlook–and ultimately their ballots.