Tiptoeing Towards November

Democrats have reasons to be optimistic come November. Dropping gas prices are slowing inflation (despite this month’s slight uptick) and COVID anxiety is reduced. Biden and Congress can point to recent “wins” on gun control, health care and student loan debt forgiveness.

On the other hand
, Republicans have historical and institutional advantages going into 2022 with redistricting and midterm election patterns

FGS experts from both side of the aisle share their outlook on what each party needs to do to control Congress for the next two years:

Gregg Rothschild, FGS Global Partner:

“Democrats can hold the Senate and minimize Republican gains in the House if they can keep voters focused on reproductive freedom and on Democrats’ ability to achieve results on popular issues.

But there’s always a risk that gas prices will again rise and inflation worsens. If that happens, we’ll see Republicans running both the House and Senate in January.”

Lindsay Plack, FGS Global Managing Director:

“The political and economic environment going into a midterm election has never been so good for Republicans, but some self-inflicted wounds have dampened the outlook. Republicans should stay focused on the future and pocketbook issues, not the past and personality wars. 

The abortion debate seems to be driving Democratic voters to the polls but abortion politics motivates Republicans just as much as Democrats so the net advantage isn’t as big as one would think.”

Read our Research and Insights team’s full analysis here.