States’ Rates Offer Trump Bait

President Trump loves to highlight the disparity between Republican and Democrat-run states in their handling of COVID-19 and other difficulties facing the country.

GPG examined the COVID-19 case data and census population data to see how the disparities the president cites bear out in the data.

 Looking at confirmed cases and deaths by population for Republican and Democrat-led states, we see death rates in blue states are higher than those of red states due in large part to that initial spike through the month of April in states like New York.

But while the deaths as a percent of population are currently higher in blue states, cases rates are beginning to accelerate in red states— eclipsing those of blue states by mid-July.

How much COVID impacts the 2020 election could hinge on how the COVID-19 death rate begins to trend in red states.