Reading Between The Lines

We pored over the Election Day results to pull out some key insights

  • According to exit polls, voters who say they prioritized a leader who cares about people like me” were split between the two candidates.
  • Those who prioritized a strong leader broke for Trump +43 points over Biden, while those who prioritized a leader with good judgement and who can unite the country broke for Biden over Trump (+41 points and +53 points, respectively).
  • Compared to 2016, Biden expanded his support with key groups and flipped the crucial bloc of suburban voters. He maintained Hillary Clinton’s advantage with women (+13) and expanded support with a few key groups:
    • Youth (+8 compared to 2016)
    • College grads (+3)
    • Lower-income voters (+3).
  • On the other hand, his advantage with other demographic groups shrunk–especially among Black men (-7) and LGBTQ voters (-30) – even though they still overwhelmingly voted Democrat.

On the other side, Trump lost ground with much of his base but they still turned out in force. Trump won the undecided vote (+12 compared to 2016) and expanded support with higher income voters (+11). But he lost support among a few key blocs that won him the election in 2016, including:

  • Voters over 65 (-4 compared to 2016)
  • Non-college voters (-7)
  • Men (-10)
  • White men (-13)
  • Rural voters (-18).

For more post-game analysis, visit GPG’s election headquarters.