Race to the Bottom

Trump’s approval rating is taking the largest hit in the states where the COVID curve is flattening.

Eight of the top 10 states in terms of percent increase in total cases are also in the bottom 10 in terms of President Trump’s approval rating.

Vermont, the state with the lowest approval rating of President Trump (22%), had the 9th lowest percent increase in total cases (3.4%). Conversely, Florida, the state with the highest percent increase in total cases over the past week (41%) has the 27th highest approval rating (44%).

The glaring exception to this observed trend is California. The state where President Trump’s approval rating is only 26% (third lowest) also has a one-week percent increase in cases of 17.5% (12th highest).

Notably, many of the states that now appear to be effectively flattening the curve (New York, Connecticut, New Jersey) were some of the hardest hit states at the outset of this pandemic in the United States and have some of the highest total case numbers (and some of the largest U.S. populations). Thus, relative increases in the total number of cases are inherently minimal.