Outlook: Ukraine

On the anniversary of Russia’s war in Ukraine, our global Ukraine Taskforce took a look at the state of the war, outlining how the political positions of various countries will evolve and how the war continues to shape the developments in the energy sector and the global business environment.

  • There is no end to the war in sight. A war of attrition extending deep into 2023 and perhaps even beyond remains the mostly likely scenario moving forward.
  • Russia is betting that its far larger economy – despite the isolation and harm caused by Western sanctions – will generate the capabilities its military needs to ultimately overwhelm the far smaller Ukrainian forces.
  • The United States’ overall support for Ukraine remains strong, albeit complicated by shifts in its domestic political landscape. President Biden and members of his cabinet continue to express staunch support for President Zelenskyy and Ukraine. Forthcoming deliveries of expanded weaponry and other military support are intended to meet the country’s evolving needs in the face of continued Russian mobilization.
  • China will maintain its close relationship with Russia while attempting to improve relations with the West and claiming a neutral position in the war.
  • The swiftness with which many Western companies announced a withdrawal from Russia in 2022 underlined that purpose- and morals-based expectations towards companies have changed – for good. The war in Ukraine has accelerated a trend: Companies need to be more prepared than ever to communicate how their business activities and supply chains relate to larger societal conflicts and conversations.
  • Russia will remain marginalized from Western markets for as long as the war continues. Western sanctions will not be lifted any time soon and will likely remain in place indefinitely in sectors even indirectly related to Russia’s military. Even in sectors not deemed of concern for security reasons, rebuilding trust with Russia will take many years.

Find the full analysis here.