Midterm Mood

Will the recent Supreme Court leak foreshadowing a decision to overturn Roe vs. Wade make a difference at the ballot box this fall? It remains a very open question. 

In examining recent polling on the topic, FGH’s Research and Insights team found the demographic most likely to prioritize abortion access is paying the least attention to the midterms.

Here’s what else they found: 

  • Access to abortion is a high priority for Gen Z voters going into the 2022 midterms, with 57% saying it is very important a candidate supports abortion access. It is a much higher priority for them compared to Millennials (39%), Gen Xers (40%) and Baby Boomers (41%). 
  • Nearly two-thirds of Americans say the decision to overturn Roe does not affect their decision to vote in the 2022 midterms. Despite the visible outrage, only 40% of Democrats say the Roe decision will make them more likely to vote. 
  • The Roe leak has likely had little to no effect on people’s anticipated voting decisions in the upcoming midterms. In the days following the leak, those who say they lean toward voting for a Democratic candidate in the midterms fell 2 points to 44% compared to the days right before the Roe leak. Those who lean towards voting Republican rose 4 points to 49%. 
  • Almost half of Gen Z Americans (48%) say they are not paying attention to the 2022 midterms, while only 9% of Baby Boomer voters say they are not paying attention. 
  • More Republicans (68%) say they will definitely be voting in the 2022 midterms compared to Democrats (59%) and Independents (44%). 
  • The top issue among voters is still the economy (79%) despite abortion becoming an increasingly important issue going to the midterms. Will voter intensity on abortion further spike if /when the Roe repeal becomes reality?