With almost half of states set to open polls by the end of this week, our Research and Insights team took a look at the dynamics affecting this year’s midterm election in comparison to typical midterm elections.
While Democrats have more in their favor than a typical midterm, that doesn’t mean they are “favored.”
The “Typical” Midterm Election:
- The race is a referendum on the president and the party in power.
- More seats are lost when the president’s job approval ratings are low and the economy is struggling.
- Toss-up races tend to break toward the same party.
The 2022 Midterm Election:
- Voters are weighing more than Biden. Other issues like abortion and Jan 6 are concerning voters.
- The GOP is facing headwinds of its own (Trump’s legal battles, backlash to the Dobbs decision) while still holding the redistricting advantage.
- Forecasters don’t expect a runaway win by either party.
At the same time, rates on mortgages have nearly doubled since early 2022, and the cost of groceries has increased 11% over the past year.
With less than 30 days left in the race, all of these dynamics make the outcome even harder to predict.
Read the full analysis here.