With almost half of states set to open polls by the end of this week, our Research and Insights team took a look at the dynamics affecting this year’s midterm election in comparison to typical midterm elections. 

While Democrats have more in their favor than a typical midterm, that doesn’t mean they are “favored.” 

The “Typical” Midterm Election:

• The race is a referendum on the president and the party in power.
• More seats are lost when the president’s job approval ratings are low and the economy is struggling.
• Toss-up races tend to break toward the same party.

The 2022 Midterm Election:

• Voters are weighing more than Biden. Other issues like abortion and Jan 6 are concerning voters.
• The GOP is facing headwinds of its own (Trump’s legal battles, backlash to the Dobbs decision) while still holding the redistricting advantage. 
• Forecasters don’t expect a runaway win by either party.

At the same time, rates on mortgages have nearly doubled since early 2022, and the cost of groceries has increased 11% over the past year. 

With less than 30 days left in the race, all of these dynamics make the outcome even harder to predict.

Read the full analysis here.