Deliberation Nation

Election Day 2022 is here. For up-to-date analysis from FGS Global experts before and after the results, bookmark our 2022 U.S. Election Dashboard.

On the last day Americans can cast their ballots in the 2022 midterm elections, here are the arguments each party wants voters to take to the polls:  

  • Republicans want this election to be a referendum on the economy. 
    • With a message focused on the economy and crime, Republicans are confident about winning the House and have reason to be optimistic about the Senate. 51% of voters trust Republicans to do a better job handling both crime and the economy (compared to 35% and 37% who trust Democrats more, respectively). 
    • As they gain momentum, GOP money is being spent in bluer districts that were not competitive two months ago.
  • Democrats want this to be a choice election.
    • Democrats have recalibrated their messaging to put more emphasis on the economy and election integrity.
    • But they continue to focus on abortion, the future of democracy and how a Republican takeover would threaten Social Security and turn back progress on health care.
    • Fifty percent of voters say a candidate’s position on abortion, threats to democracy and voting and addressing the cost of living by raising taxes on corporations is more important in deciding their vote. That’s compared to 44% who say a candidate’s position on crime, the situation at the border and addressing the cost of living by cutting government spending is more important.

Here’s how the winning party could impact governing for years to come:

  • President Biden’s agenda:
    • If the GOP takes the House or Senate, Biden’s legislative agenda will grind to a halt.
    • If Democrats keep both chambers, it could cement their mandate.
  • Investigations:
    • If the GOP takes control of the House, the Jan. 6 commission will likely dissolve.
    • New investigations could move forward focused on topics like Hunter Biden and the Mar-a-Lago raid.
  • Nominations:
    • If the GOP takes the Senate, many of Biden’s court and agency nominees could be blocked until after 2024.
  • State-level powers & policy:
    • Abortion could be restricted or banned in several states.
    • Secretary of State races will determine which party has power to verify (or contest) 2024 presidential election results.

Read on for our Research and Insights team’s full election analysis.