Competitive Races in Hard-Hit States Earn Attention and Funds

How might Justice Ginsburg’s death alter the outcome of the 2020 election–one in which Americans have already begun voting?

As of Sunday, progressive fundraising platform ActBlue reported it had received more than $100 million in donations to Democratic candidates and campaigns since 8pm Friday, the most donations it has raised in any single day.

Analysis of Twitter conversation shows Senate races in South Carolina, Arizona and Kentucky were top of mind following Ginsburg’s death. And while we don’t know exactly how donations fell across campaigns, the candidates mentioned most in tweets also mentioning ActBlue included Senate candidates in South Carolina, Arizona, Kentucky, Texas, Mississippi, Iowa, South Carolina, Maine, Georgia and Kansas.

As we try to understand the implications of Ginsburg’s death and consequent fundraising on the upcoming election, we should consider:

  • Prior to Justice Ginsburg’s death, a plurality of voters said the economy, followed by coronavirus, are the most important issues in deciding their vote.
  • Among the key states where ActBlue donations help to support Democratic candidates, news cases of COVID are highest in Texas, Georgia and North Carolina.
  • Before Justice Ginsburg’s death, most voters trusted Biden over Trump to fill the next Supreme Court vacancy, and Democrats were more influenced by the Supreme Court at the polls than Republicans.
  • Early polling since Justice Ginsburg’s death shows eight-in-ten Democrats and five-in-ten Republicans want the winner of the Nov. 3 election to fill the vacancy.