Of the largest counties in the United States (those with over 1.5 million people), only three had 10 or more deaths on July 12 – Maricopa, AZ; Los Angeles, CA; and Cook, IL.

One month ago, that number was five.

With the news that New York City reported no COVID-19 related deaths yesterday, GPG examined how some high-population counties are fairing as case rates continue to skyrocket.

Phoenix’s Maricopa County, with a population of nearly 4.5 million, had 40 deaths – the highest among these high-population counties.

Of these remaining high-population counties that had COVID-19 related deaths yesterday (12), all had fewer than 10 deaths.

However, 75% of counties with deaths yesterday were either in California, Florida, or Texas – the three states with the highest total number of cases outside of New York.

There are multiple theories as to why we see declining death rates in the wake of rising cases – the inherent lag between diagnosis and the onset of life threatening conditions, expanded testing, and others.

With case rates once again rising (particularly in these states with high population counties), we’ll soon see whether these theories bear out.